10 Stocks Shaking the Market

 

Some stocks are one-hit wonders, making a big splash when they first appear, then quickly fizzling into oblivion. But for other stocks, that initial big move is only a preview of things to come.

Today, we've compiled a list of 10 stocks that made some of the biggest moves up over the past 30 days. We'll then pair that list with the ratings from our Motley Fool CAPS community. The higher each stock's rating, the greater CAPS members' faith in that company's ability to keep on beating the market.

Stock	30-Day % Change	CAPS Rating (out of five)
Human Genome Sciences (Nasdaq: HGSI)	410.70%	**
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals	88.09%	*
Oshkosh	86.31%	****
Orexigen Therapeutics (Nasdaq: OREX)	76.53%	**
Dana Holding	62.75%	**
TRW Automotive	59.98%	**
Nevsun Resources (NYSE: NSU)	54.21%	**
CDC (Nasdaq: CHINA)	47.02%	****
Immunomedics (Nasdaq: IMMU)	42.17%	***
Incyte (Nasdaq: INCY)	40.74%	*****

As the markets have rebounded after several consecutive losing weeks, we see that the gains are less than those experienced by the movers and shakers from previous weeks. With almost all of the stocks carrying low one- and two-star ratings, let's see why some members of the CAPS community think one of these companies might outperform the market.

A mighty temblor
A long-term investor in Human Genome Sciences can only take small solace in the huge jump in the share price the other day when company officials reported that lupus treatment Benlysta passed an important phase 3 milestone. After all, the stock price is still about 89% below the high point it reached in 2000.

Yet, more recent converts to the biotech's story no doubt are basking in the glow and eagerly await the next, albeit low, hurdle set for November,   when the results of a second phase 3 trial are reported. Because the test is set up essentially the same as the one just completed, it should bring straightforward results.

The risk isn't necessarily that the drug won't pass the test, but that the condition it's taking on has a track record of sending drugs off to die. Lupus occurs when the body attacks itself, causing skin rashes, inflammation of the kidneys and tissue surrounding the heart, and pain and swelling in joints virtually anywhere in the body, making it difficult to treat. Despite the failures that have preceded it, Human Genome Sciences' therapy may be one of the best hopes for patients.

While the next clinical trial results might not result in another surge in the stock's price, investors might reap a windfall nonetheless. Human Genome Sciences is partnering with GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) to market the drug; estimates are that it could earn $1 billion in annual sales if it's approved. That might be just enough incentive for Glaxo to buy the biotech company outright, particularly because it has said bolt-on acquisitions are right in line with its growth plans.

CAPS All-Star UltraLong, with a perfect 100.00 rating, remains unswayed by the recent success, noting that an irrational market is assigning unwarranted valuations to many biotechs. The test results may be a good start for Human Genome Sciences, but there's little justification for the valuation, let alone revenues.

You know the apocalypse is near when Human Genome Sciences is outperforming the market. This company was written off for dead back in March after yet another failed drug study.

So let's analyze what we have here. They finally, after countless [tries], found a drug that works better at controlling the pain and inflammation associated with lupus, potentially a 2 million person market. Now I'm not saying 2 million people aren't worth it, but perhaps they could have been lucky and pushed through a clinical trial for a drug that [affects] more than 0.0003% of the population.

So assuming this gets quick review status from the FDA, it will still be until early 2011 before any material impact is seen from the revenue of this drug. I would peg this as extremely unlikely to get this company to profitability. The underlying fundamentals here are a joke and always have been. A negative book valuation of 2 cents, nearly 600M in long-term debts compared to cash on hand of under 200M and a rich history of losses.

The 240 companies with the CAPS Biotechnology tag have been carried up in the past 30 days by the performance of stocks like Human Genome Sciences and Targacept, which also tripled. Stocks with this tag are up 14%, better than the 7% return of the S&P 500.