Monday, August 17, 2009

Stock Smackdown: Cramer vs. CAPS

There's no denying that Mad Money host Jim Cramer is entertaining, popular, and passionate. On many occasions, he's even right. So he's smart, funny, and the closest thing to a stock market rock star -- but is he smarter than you?

Cramming for Cramer
The Fool's free investing community, Motley Fool CAPS, aggregates the opinion of more than 135,000 members to assign ratings for each stock's likelihood of outperforming or underperforming the market.

Below, we look at some top stocks that Cramer picked and panned during last week's "lightning rounds," and compare them to how the CAPS community sees their future.

Stock

Lightning Round Show Day

Cramer's Rating 

CAPS Rating

Navistar International (NYSE: NAV)

Monday

Bullish

**

United States Steel (NYSE: X)

Monday

Bearish

****

Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM)

Tuesday

Bearish

****

Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)

Tuesday

Bullish

***

Allegheny Technologies

Tuesday

Bearish

****

Taiwan Semiconductor

Wednesday

Bullish

*****

Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU)

Wednesday

Bearish

**

United Parcel Service

Thursday

Bullish

**

STEC (Nasdaq: STEC)

Thursday

Bullish

**

Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW)

Thursday

Bullish

****

Source: MadMoneyRecap and CAPS.

Cramer says ...
According to some, the advent of the biggest technological development since the Internet will drive tech companies in the future. The mobile Internet is said to be the best, long-term play in technology. Jim Cramer likens it to a tidal wave that washes over those companies not fortunate enough to be a part of it -- companies such as Alcatel-Lucent:

No, no, no... we are in a situation where the only one... that one is not part of our Internet mobile tsunami... I could give you CIENA Corp., I could give you Tele Labs, I could give you ADC Telecommunications, I could give you Cisco...all of those are superior to your house of pain... and that has been a multiple year house of pain... remember, Franco American Spaghetti.... throw it away.

CAPS says ...
With just a two-star rating from the CAPS members rating Alcatel, it seems our investor intelligence community would agree. CAPS member georcole, for instance, writes that investing in the telecom player has meant a world of pain for his portfolio:

I bought Lucent in 2002 and hoped that they would improve their financial situation and become profitable shortly thereafter. I watched the value of my investment go way down. They did a reverse stock split to keep from being delisted and later joined Alcatel. I finally decided to cut my losses after being down about 90% and sold. I now have no hope for them to become profitable any time soon.

This Fool says ...
Even if Cramer is right about the mobile Internet's potential, I think he may be understating its ability to carry along Alcatel-Lucent for the ride, too. Alcatel has been cementing deals with China's telecom providers to install its equipment as they upgrade their networks. China Mobile and China Telecom have both signed on with Alcatel-Lucent, which should help the company get its foot in the door as China upgrades to fourth-generation equipment next year.

Alcatel-Lucent has undoubtedly been a big disappointment to investors, but they shouldn't dismiss the company out of hand. China may be the biggest investing story yet, and Cramer's mobile Internet is just one part of it.

Have your say
Whether CAPS members stand with Jim Cramer, or on the opposite side of the field, the investor intelligence community is more than the opinions of a handful of All-Stars, even if they are TV personalities. What do you think? Is Cramer right, or off his rocker? Head over to CAPS to sound off on whether Alcatel-Lucent's got Cramer's number, or vice versa.

 
 

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